What We're Seeing: Post-Election Calm – 3 November 2025

The Week in Brief

The week after Election Day had muted moves. Equities climbed modestly as election-related volatility eased. With the uncertainty resolved, investors returned to focusing on fundamentals rather than political scenarios.

The pattern is consistent with historical precedent. Markets typically rally after elections, regardless of the outcome, as the removal of uncertainty allows investors to position with greater confidence.

Sector Leadership

Technology and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains. These areas benefit from expectations of continued economic growth and consumer spending. The AI theme remained supportive for tech, while discretionary names drew bids on holiday spending optimism.

Energy jumped as oil topped $90 on Middle East tensions. Geopolitical risk in the region provided a bid for crude, overriding concerns about demand. Energy stocks, which had lagged earlier in the year, caught a meaningful bounce.

Currency Moves

The dollar fell to a one-year low during the week. The weaker greenback reflects a combination of factors: narrowing rate differentials as the Fed eases, and global investors rebalancing toward non-US assets.

A softer dollar is generally supportive for US multinationals with overseas earnings. It also provides a tailwind for commodities and emerging markets.

Our Read

We are constructive on the setup heading into year-end. The election is behind us, earnings season was respectable, and the Fed is on an easing path. These are supportive conditions for risk assets.

The energy move deserves attention. Geopolitical risk is inherently unpredictable, and oil above $90 creates some inflationary headwind. We are not overly concerned at current levels, but a spike toward $100 or beyond would complicate the picture.

For positioning, we are maintaining overweight equities with a tilt toward quality growth. The post-election rally has legs, in our view, and we want to participate. We are also holding energy exposure as a hedge against geopolitical surprises.

What Could Change Our View

A significant escalation in the Middle East that disrupts oil supply would be a negative. We would also reassess if the post-election rally stalls and gives way to renewed selling. For now, the trend is constructive, and we are positioned accordingly.

This is informational commentary, not investment advice.