US stocks kicked off December 2025 on a mild upswing. The S&P 500 extended its late-November rebound, ending the week near record highs. Investor attention was on Fed succession and global policy, but the backdrop remained supportive.
Global indices were mostly higher, and risk assets were broadly bid. The synchronised rally suggests that investor confidence extends beyond US shores. European and Asian markets participated in the year-end strength.
The week after Election Day had muted moves. Equities climbed modestly as election-related volatility eased. With the uncertainty resolved, investors returned to focusing on fundamentals rather than political scenarios.
The pattern is consistent with historical precedent. Markets typically rally after elections, regardless of the outcome, as the removal of uncertainty allows investors to position with greater confidence.
Sector Leadership
Technology and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains. These areas benefit from expectations of continued economic growth and consumer spending. The AI theme remained supportive for tech, while discretionary names drew bids on holiday spending optimism.
Late October 2025 saw choppy trading as election uncertainty took hold. The S&P 500 dipped about 1% after shifts in polling and campaign developments sparked policy uncertainty. Investors began to price in the possibility of meaningful changes depending on the outcome.
Elections always inject uncertainty into markets. The range of potential policy outcomes, from taxes to regulation to trade, creates a wider distribution of scenarios than usual. Markets hate uncertainty, and that aversion showed up in price action.
Markets took a breather in early September 2025. With no major data releases or catalysts, equities traded essentially flat for the week. The summer lull extended into the first week of September, as investors awaited the next round of economic releases.
Volume was light, as is typical during the post-Labour Day period. Many participants were still returning from holidays, and there was little urgency to establish new positions.
Technology and growth stocks surged in July 2025. NVIDIA, AMD, and other AI leaders saw double-digit jumps on strong guidance, pushing the Nasdaq to fresh highs. The S&P 500 also hit all-time highs, carried by the outsized gains in the technology sector.
The AI theme, which some had questioned after a quieter first quarter, came roaring back. Companies are not just talking about AI adoption; they are spending real money. Capital expenditure guidance from hyperscalers confirmed that the buildout is accelerating.
Mid-year 2025 brought renewed focus on Fed policy. May jobs data underwhelmed, coming in below expectations and sparking fresh hopes that rate cuts are finally on the horizon. Stocks rallied broadly in response.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs as yield curves steepened with long-dated yields falling. The dollar weakened, a typical response when rate differentials narrow. Risk appetite was clearly on display.
Around early April, first-quarter earnings season showed modest growth, while inflation data came in mixed. The S&P 500 traded in a tight range, lacking a clear catalyst in either direction. Sectors were mixed, with no dominant theme emerging.
After the tariff-induced volatility of March, markets settled into a holding pattern. Investors are digesting the new policy reality while waiting for more clarity on earnings and the economic outlook.
Political risk resurfaced with a vengeance. US equities fell sharply on Monday after President Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The S&P 500 dropped 1 to 2% in a single session, with growth stocks sold more aggressively than value.
The announcement caught markets off guard. While tariff threats had been part of the political discourse, the speed and scope of the implementation surprised investors. Supply chains for autos, agriculture, and consumer goods face immediate disruption.
By mid-December, the rally began to stall. The S&P 500 briefly turned lower as Treasury yields jumped after hawkish Fed minutes, ending a multi-month advance. The minutes revealed that policymakers remain cautious about cutting rates too quickly, tempering some of the earlier optimism.
The move in yields was the catalyst. The 10-year rose 10 to 15 basis points on the week, pressuring equity valuations. Bond prices fell correspondingly, reminding investors that the path to easier policy is not guaranteed.
December opened on a positive note. Equity indices were mixed but finished the week mostly higher, as a dovish Fed at its final meeting of the year and continued signs of slowing inflation extended the bullish trend.
The market has been remarkably resilient. After navigating election uncertainty, earnings season, and shifting rate expectations, stocks are ending 2024 near their highs. The Santa Claus rally, that seasonal tendency for markets to drift higher into year-end, appears to be playing out.
US stocks rallied sharply last week, with the Nasdaq jumping 1.4% on Monday alone. This extended the longest winning streak of 2024 to eight weeks. The gains were broad: all 11 S&P sectors climbed, led by technology and cyclicals.
This was the largest weekly gain of the year for major indices, with markets up 3 to 5% in aggregate. Investors shook off the early-August jitters entirely, driven by optimism that cooling inflation and economic resilience will allow the Fed to begin cutting rates in September.
Volatility returned to markets in early August. Stocks briefly sold off amid renewed Fed concerns and global growth worries. The move was sharp but short-lived, with markets reversing course quickly as buyers stepped in.
The speed of the recovery was notable. What looked like the start of a meaningful correction turned into a dip-buying opportunity. This pattern has repeated throughout 2024: pullbacks are shallow and quickly absorbed.
Stocks continued climbing last week, with July 12 marking another milestone. The S&P 500 and Dow closed at record intraday highs, fueled by strong second-quarter earnings from major banks and renewed bets on Fed rate cuts.
JPMorgan and Citi led the way, reporting results that exceeded expectations. The earnings strength was broad enough to lift sentiment across the market. Perhaps more notable was the action in smaller stocks: the Russell 2000 surged to its best levels since 2022, signaling that the rally is no longer confined to mega-caps.
A broader market rotation emerged last week. Early in the week, the Russell 2000 and other small and mid-cap indices surged, hitting multi-year highs. This marked a continuation of the shift out of mega-caps that had been building for weeks.
Tech leaders cooled off significantly. NVIDIA and most chip stocks fell 6 to 7% as profit-taking set in after an extraordinary run. The Dow hit a one-month high, while the S&P 500 ended slightly down for the week. It was a tale of two markets: the old economy rising as the new economy took a breather.
US markets were mixed but modestly higher in early June, with the S&P 500 roughly flat-to-up heading into the Fed meeting. The main event came on June 12, when the central bank kept rates on hold as expected. More importantly, CPI data released the same day surprised to the downside, briefly lifting tech shares to new intraday highs.
The week saw new record closes for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq after the Fed meeting, even though some of those gains faded by Friday. This pattern of rallying on good news and then consolidating is characteristic of a mature bull market.
The S&P 500’s five-week win streak came to an end. Equities gave back some ground as Treasury yields popped higher after mixed auction results. The bond market reminded investors that rate expectations can shift quickly.
Higher yields clipped long-duration tech and growth stocks, which are most sensitive to discount rate changes. Meanwhile, cyclical and value sectors outperformed. Energy and financials led on the rate volatility, benefiting from themes that work when yields rise.
Big-cap tech continued to carry markets last week. The S&P 500 held near record levels, powered by further gains in the Magnificent Seven and other large-cap growth names. The concentration of returns in a handful of stocks remains a feature of this market, even as some rotation into value and cyclicals persists underneath the surface.
Fed minutes from the April meeting showed policymakers were still reluctant to cut rates too soon. The market took this in stride, choosing to focus on declining inflation expectations and the prospect of an eventual easing cycle.
US indices hit fresh all-time highs last week. The catalyst was the latest consumer price index reading, which came in cooler than expected. The data briefly sparked a rally that put the S&P 500 at new records, with tech stocks leading the surge.
The enthusiasm was tempered by week’s end. Fed commentary during the week leaned hawkish, reminding investors that rate cuts are not imminent. By Friday, the market had given back some of its gains, finishing the week only slightly higher. The Nasdaq outperformed again, continuing its year-to-date leadership.
Stocks extended their winning streak to three weeks. The S&P 500 gained again and was within roughly 1% of its all-time closing high. Investors largely shrugged off mixed earnings, choosing instead to focus on weak labour data that reinforced hopes for Fed rate cuts later in the summer.
The style rotation that began earlier in the spring continued. Value stocks outperformed growth, and small caps edged out large caps. This is a meaningful shift from the mega-cap dominated tape we saw for much of 2023.
Markets bounced back after the early April wobble. The S&P 500 rebounded from previous losses and closed near new highs, helped by surprisingly strong first-quarter GDP data and upbeat corporate earnings. The soft landing narrative, which had come under some scrutiny, found fresh support.
Growth sectors led the advance. Technology and communication services outperformed, as investors rotated back into the names that had pulled back weeks earlier. Safe havens softened, with gold drifting lower as risk appetite returned.
Equities gave back some ground last week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each slipped roughly 1%, snapping a stretch of strong performance. The culprits were familiar: a surge in Treasury yields and renewed tensions in the Middle East.
Small caps took the hardest hit. The Russell 2000 fell about 2.8%, reflecting classic risk-off positioning. When investors grow nervous, they tend to shed their most volatile holdings first. The rotation we noted last week, where breadth was improving, took a pause.
US stocks continued to ride a strong bull trend last week. The S&P 500 notched another weekly gain, marking its fourth straight month of advances, while the Nasdaq traded near all-time highs. What caught our attention was not just the headline numbers but the underlying shift in market character: breadth is finally improving.
For months, a handful of mega-cap technology names carried the index higher while most stocks languished. That dynamic appears to be changing. Small-cap indices and cyclical sectors posted meaningful gains, suggesting that risk appetite is spreading beyond the usual suspects. When breadth expands in a rising market, it tends to be a constructive signal for sustainability.
