In Terry Pratchett's Discworld, octarine is the colour of magic — visible only to those who know how to look.
At Octarine Capital, we see patterns others miss. Our quantitative models illuminate opportunities hidden in the noise of global markets, revealing the invisible frequencies that drive returns.
As of 2024-12-06. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See disclaimer.
We replace intuition with evidence. Our models are built on rigorous statistical foundations, continuously refined through decades of market data.
We deploy capital across global markets — equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies — seeking uncorrelated returns wherever they emerge.
Position sizing, correlation analysis, and tail-risk management are woven into every strategy. We survive the improbable to capture the inevitable.
Octarine Capital is a systematic investment firm founded on the belief that disciplined, data-driven strategies outperform over time.
We are not currently accepting new investors. Our focus remains on refining our models and generating consistent, risk-adjusted returns.
"The magic is in the mathematics."
Weekly perspectives on markets, positioning, and the patterns we're watching.
US stocks kicked off December 2025 on a mild upswing. The S&P 500 extended its late-November rebound, ending the week near record highs. Investor attention was on Fed succession and global policy, but the backdrop remained supportive.
Global indices were mostly higher, and risk assets were broadly bid. The synchronised rally suggests that investor confidence extends beyond US shores. European and Asian markets participated in the year-end strength.
The week after Election Day had muted moves. Equities climbed modestly as election-related volatility eased. With the uncertainty resolved, investors returned to focusing on fundamentals rather than political scenarios.
The pattern is consistent with historical precedent. Markets typically rally after elections, regardless of the outcome, as the removal of uncertainty allows investors to position with greater confidence.
Technology and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains. These areas benefit from expectations of continued economic growth and consumer spending. The AI theme remained supportive for tech, while discretionary names drew bids on holiday spending optimism.
Late October 2025 saw choppy trading as election uncertainty took hold. The S&P 500 dipped about 1% after shifts in polling and campaign developments sparked policy uncertainty. Investors began to price in the possibility of meaningful changes depending on the outcome.
Elections always inject uncertainty into markets. The range of potential policy outcomes, from taxes to regulation to trade, creates a wider distribution of scenarios than usual. Markets hate uncertainty, and that aversion showed up in price action.